Stochastic Modelling

türkçe

I worked on a number of research projects that involve stochastic modelling. One of the most important research projects in this area is on evaluating the risks caused by possible increase of oil tanker traffic through the Bosphorus. I worked with Prof. Emre Otay from Bogazici University to develop a physics-based model that evaluates the expected number of casualties based on the arrival traffic and also the hydrodynamic model of the waterway. Our most important result is that the casualty risk at the straits increase with the square of the increased tanker arrival rate.

I also developed a model for the RISK (Gizli Hedef) board game. This model gives you the likelihood of winning a (local) war depending on the number of attackers and defendants with the expected number of casualties.

With Prof. Kamil Yilmaz from Koç University Economics departments, we developed a statistical method to measure market efficiency in emerging markets. This method is based on analyzing the statistical properties of a time series by using Markov chains.

You can find my publications in this area below. Please send me an email for a soft or a hard copy of the papers.

JOURNAL ARTICLES

Tan, B. and Yilmaz. K. "Markov Chain Test for Time Dependence and Homogeneity: An Analytical and Empirical Evaluation, ” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.137, No.3, pp. 524-543, 2002.

Tan, B. and Otay, E., “A Stochastic Model for Vessel Casualties Resultingfrom Oil Tanker Traffic through Narrow Waterways,” Naval Research Logistics,Volume 46, Issue 8, pp. 871-892, 1999.

Tan, B. "Markov Chains and the RISK Board Game," Mathematics Magazine,Vol. 70, No. 5, pp.349-357, 1997.

REFEREED CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

Tan, B. and Otay, E., “A Stochastic Model for Vessel Casualties Resultingfrom Oil Tanker Traffic through Narrow Waterways,” Proceedings of the 1998European Simulation Multiconference, Ed. R. Zobel and D.Moeller, pp. 881-885.

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

International Conference Proceedings

Otay, E. and Tan, B. ,”Stochastic Modeling of Tanker Traffic Through NarrowWaterways,” Proceedings of International Conference on Oil Spills in theMediterranean and Black Sea Regions: Impact, Contingency Planning, Response,Technology for Containment and Recovery, pp. O04-12.