Kamil Yılmaz
Associate Professor of Economics Director, TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Koç University Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sariyer Istanbul 34450, Turkey Phone: 90-212 338 1458 Fax: 90-212 338 1653 mailto: kyilmaz@ku.edu.tr
research papers
recent work
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Latest Diebold-Yilmaz International Business Cycle Spillover Index (Tusiad-Koç University Economic Research Forum) |
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Latest Diebold-Yilmaz Global Equity Market Spillover Index (Tusiad-Koç University Economic Research Forum) |
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TUSIAD-Koç Üniversitesi Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Araştırma Notu 09-02: "Bu Kez Çok Farklı: Sanayileşmiş Ülkeler Birbirini Dibe Çekiyor," Mart 31, 2009 |
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VOX column on the current state of the global economy: "This Time it is Really Different: Major Industrialised Economies are Pulling Each Other into the Abyss," March 28, 2009. |
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VOX interview on Financial Market Interdependence, March 20, 2009 |
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TUSIAD-Koç Üniversitesi Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu Politika Notu 09-01: "Küresel Kriz, Durgunluk ve Artan Korumacılık Eğilimi," Mart 20, 2009 |
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“International Business Cycle Spillovers,” Manuscript, Koç University March 2009. |
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“Better to Give than to Receive: Forecast-Based Measurement of Volatility Spillovers,” (with Francis X. Diebold ) Paper presented in the Workshop on Predictability in Financial Markets, International Institute of Forecasting, Lisbon, Portugal, January 2009. |
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“Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas,” Manuscript, Koç University, (with Francis X. Diebold) October 2008. |
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“The Intertemporal Relation Between Expected Return and Risk on Currency,” Manuscript, Koç University, (with Turan G. Bali) August 2008 |
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“Integration with the Global Economy: The Case of Turkish Automobile and Consumer Electronics Industries,” TUSIAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum (ERF) Working Paper No. 0801 (with Erol Taymaz), February 2008 |
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“Siyasette Reform Zorunlu,” work in progress, May 2007 |
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“Market Liquidity, Capitalization and the Predictability of Short-Horizon Stock Returns” revised November 2006 |
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“Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: Identifying Linkages through Product-based Measures,” January 2005 |
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“Market Development and Predictability of Stock Returns in Emerging Markets,” January 2004 |
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“Tax Hikes vs Expenditure Cuts: An Asymmetric Model of Delayed Stabilization,” 21 pages, June 2003 |
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“Political Elites and the Delay in Stabilization,” 43 pages, June 2001 |
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“Export Decision and Investment in Machinery & Equipment: Korean Textile Industry,” 18 pages, July 2000 |
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“Productivity Response to Reduction in Trade Barriers: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Plants,” (with Sule Ozler) Review of World Economics, forthcoming, 2009. |
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“History Matters for the Export Decision: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry,” (with Sule Ozler and Erol Taymaz) World Development, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 479-488, February 2009. |
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“Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets,” (with Francis X. Diebold) Economic Journal, Vol. 119, pp. 158-171, January 2009. |
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For the weekly-updated Diebold-Yilmaz Global Equity Market Return and Volatility Spillover Indices: http://data.economicresearchforum.org/erf/SpillOverIndex.aspx |
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“Trade Orientation and Productivity: Turkish Manufacturing Industry Before and After the Customs Union,” (with Erol Taymaz), Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy, Vol. 1, No. 1, Spring 2007 |
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“How Much Should the Primary Commodity Exports be Taxed? Nash and Stackelberg Equilibria in the Global Cocoa Market,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol 15, No. 1, pp. 1-16, March 2006 |
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“Volatility and Contagion: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," (with Emre Alper), Economic Systems, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 353-367, December 2004 |
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“Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 383-395, July 2003 |
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“Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness,” (with Ashoka Mody), World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 23-48, 2002. |
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“Markov Chain Test for Time Dependence and Homogeneity: An Analytical and Empirical Evaluation,”(with Barış Tan ), European Journal of Operations Research, Vol.137, No.3, pp. 524-543, 2002 |
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“Optimal Export Taxes in a Multicountry Framework,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 60, pp. 439-465, December 1999 |
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“Is There Persistence in Manufacturing Export Growth? Evidence From Newly Industrializing Countries,” (with Ashoka Mody) Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 53, pp. 447-470, December 1997 |
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“Privatization and Stock Market Efficiency: The British Experience,” (with Aydın Hayri), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 44, No.2, 113-133, May 1997 |
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“On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” (with Francis X. Diebold and J. Gardeazabal) Journal of Finance, Vol. 49, No.2, pp. 727-735, June 1994 |
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“Turkey’s Recent Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Performance,” (with Umit Izmen), In Z. Onis and F. Senses (eds.), Turkey and the Global Economy, Routledge, 2009, forthcoming. |
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“Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide,” (with Francis X. Diebold), In Tim Bollerslev, Jeffrey Russell and Mark Watson (Eds.) , Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honour of Robert F. Engle, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2009, forthcoming. |
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“Talous EU-jäsenyyden kynnyksellä,” (Turkish Economy Toward EU Membership; with Bulent Gultekin), in Anu Leinonen, Tuula Kojo, Sampsa Peltonen, Mervi Nousiainen & Lauri Tainio (eds), Turkki - Euroopan rajalla?, pp.201-221, Helsinki: Gaudeamus Helsinki University Press, November 2007. |
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“Turkey’s Foreign Direct Investment Challenges: Competition, Rule of Law and and the EU Accession,” (with Mark Dutz and Melek Us), in Togan, Subidey, ed. Turkey: Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union, Oxford University Press, June 2005 |
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“The Turkish Economy before the EU Accession Talks,” (with N. Bulent Gültekin), in ed. Michael Lake, The EU and Turkey: A Glittering Prize or a Millstone?, The Federal Trust for Education and Research, London, UK, 2005 (June 2005) |
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“Does Trade Liberalization Improve Productivity? Plant level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," (with Şule Özler), 2003, Regional Development: Reality or Myth? Selected Papers from the Ninth ERF Annual Conference |
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“Domestic Needs for Foreign Finance and Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Developing Countries with Special Reference to the Turkish Experience,” (with Emre Alper) Turkish Studies, 2003 |
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“Market Development and Efficiency in Emerging Stock Markets,” Istanbul Stock Exchange Finance Award Series, 2002 |
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“Stock Return Volatility in Emerging Markets,” Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 45-60, 2000 |
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“Asset Returns, Inflation and Real Activity: The Case of Mexico and Turkey,” (with Sumru Altuğ) Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Vol. 12, No.1, October 1998 |
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“Yüksek Enflasyon Sürecinde Siyasi Elitlerin Rolü: Arjantin, Brezilya, İsrail ve Türkiye Deneyimlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi,” (Turkish translation of “Political Elites and the Delay in Stabilization,”) İşletme ve Finans, No. 183, June 2001 |
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“Türk Telekomünikasyon Sektöründe Reform: Özelleştirme, Düzenleme ve Serbestleşme,” (Reform in the Turkish telecommunications Sector: Privatization, Regulation, and Liberalization) in Atiyas, İzak, (Ed.)., Devletin Düzenleyici Rolü (State and Regulation), Turkish Economic and Social Research Foundation (TESEV) Publication, August 2000 |
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"Uluslararası Sermaye Akışı ve Yükselen Sermaye Piyasalarında Etkinlik," (International Capital Movements and Emerging Stock Market Efficiency) IV. National Econometricsand Statistics Symposium Proceedings, May 2000 |
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“Bütçe Açığı Finansmanı” (Financing the Budget Deficit); Ortalamaya Dönme (Mean-reversion); Hiperenflasyon (Hyperinflation); İstikrar Politikaları (Stabilization Policy); Gelirler Politikası (Incomes Policy), In Para ve Finans Ansiklopedisi (Encylopedia of Monetary Economics and Finance), (edited by Deniz Gökçe), Creative Yayıncılık, Istanbul, 1996 |
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"İngiliz Özelleştirme Programı ve Londra Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Üzerindeki Etkileri," published in Turan, İlter, ed., Özelleştirme Uluslararası Sempozyumu Tebliğleri, (Proceedings of the International Symposiumon Privatization),November 1995 |
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Türkiye için Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Stratejisi’ne Doğru,
(Towards a Foreign
Direct Investment Strategy for Turkey),
in Turkish,
YASED
(International Investors’ Association of Turkey) Publication,
forthcoming, February
2007 |
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Türkiye’de Büyüme Perspektifleri: Makroekonomik Çerçeve, Dinamikler, Strateji, (Growth Perspectives in Turkey: Macroeconomic Framework, Dynamics and the Strategy), in Turkish, with Alpay Filiztekin and Umit İzmen, TÜSİAD (Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association) Publication, June 2005 |
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Enflasyon ve Büyüme Dinamikleri: Gelişmekte Olan Ülke
Deneyimleri Işığında Türkiye Analizi,
(Inflation and Growth Dynamics: An Analysis of Turkey in the light of
Developing Country Experiences), in Turkish, with Cevdet Akçay and Emre
Alper,
TÜSİAD (Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association) Publication,
December 2002 |
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İhracatın Görünümü, 1996-97, (An Overview of Turkish Exports), in Turkish, Turkish Association of Exporters (TIM) Publication, April 1998 |
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Para Kurulu: Nedir, Ne Zaman Gerekir?; (Currency Board: Functions and Operation), (with Bülent N.Gültekin ), in Turkish, Turkish Economic and Social Research Foundation (TESEV) Publication, May 1996 |