My research revolves around the two major themes of democratic accountability and political participation. I focus on how democratic accountability works through economic voting, and also study the incidence and implications of distributive politics, populism, and partisanship. In a second avenue of research, I am interested in the dynamics of people's decision to turn out to vote and join protests.
In addition, I have been active in doing research related to political behavior and public opinion formation in Turkey.
You can reach my Google Scholar page here.
- Why Bother? Rethinking Participation in Elections and Protests (with Susan Stokes). Forthcoming, Cambridge University Press (Studies in Comparative Politics).
In this book we develop and test a theory of why people take part in collective action in politics: why they turn out to vote and why they go to the streets to demonstrate. Our theory explains real-world patterns that are anomalies for existing theories, such as sometimes increases in costs of participation leading people to participate more, not less. We develop the idea that just as there are costs of participation, there are also costs of abstention -- intrinsic and psychological, but no less real for that. That abstention can be psychically costly helps explain why people sometimes bear high costs to participate. The study makes use of a wealth of survey data, interviews, and experimental results, from a range of countries including Brazil, Sweden, Turkey, U.K., and U.S., and explores topics such as the malleability of peoples sense of a civic duty to vote; political leaders and activists use of emotions to get people involved.
- Forthcoming. Beyond Opportunity Costs: Campaign Messages, Anger, and Turnout among the Unemployed (with Eli Rau and Susan Stokes). British Journal of Political Science.
- 2018. Relative Economic Performance and the Incumbent Vote: A Reference Point Theory. Journal of Politics. 80(1): 16-29. Link PDF
- 2018. Presidents Shaping Public Opinion in Parliamentary Democracies: A Survey Experiment in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoğlu). Political Behavior. 40(2): 371-393. Link PDF
- 2018. Why Do People Join Backlash Protests? Lessons from Turkey (with Luis Schiumerini and Susan Stokes). Journal of Conflict Resolution. 62(6): 1205-1228. Link PDF
- 2017. Protests and Repression in New Democracies (with Luis Schiumerini and Susan Stokes). Perspectives on Politics. 15(1): 62-82. Link PDF
- 2017. Ethnicity and Religiosity-based Prejudice in Turkey: Evidence from a Survey Experiment (with Ali Çarkoğlu). International Political Science Review. Published online June 12. Link PDF
- 2017. Taking Sides: Determinants of Support for a Presidential System in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoğlu and Kerem Yıldırım). South European Society and Politics. 22(1): 1-20. Link PDF
- 2017. Türkiye'de Kişilerarası Sosyal Güven ve Bireysel Belirleyicileri (Ali Çarkoğlu ve Güneş Ertan ile) [Interpersonal Social Trust in Turkey and Its Individual-level Determinants (with Ali Çarkoğlu and Güneş Ertan)]. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi [METU Studies In Development]. 44(1): 1-25. Link PDF
- 2016. Why Some Countries Are Immune from the Resource Curse: The Role of Economic Norms (with Michael Mousseau and Ömer F. Örsün). Democratization. 23(1): 71-92. Link PDF
- 2015. Who Gets Targeted for Vote-Buying? Evidence from an Augmented List Experiment in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoğlu). European Political Science Review. 7(4): 547-66. Link PDF
- 2014. Varieties of Populism in a Changing Global Context: The Divergent Paths of Erdoğan and Kirchnerismo (with Ziya Öniş). Comparative Politics. 47(1): 41-59. Link PDF
- 2014. Distributive Politics in a Multiparty System: The Conditional Cash Transfer System in Turkey. Comparative Political Studies. 47(9): 1211-37. Link PDF
- Forthcoming. Populism in Turkey (with Ezgi Elçi). In Daniel Stockember (ed.), Populism around the World: A Comparative Perspective. New York: Springer.
- 2018. Political Parties and Public Policy in Turkey. In Caner Bakır and Güneş Ertan (eds.), Policy Analysis in Turkey. Bristol, UK: Policy Press, pp. 183-197. Link
- 2015. Türkiye'de Başkanlık Sistemine Kamuoyu Desteği (Ali Çarkoğlu ile) [Public Support for Presidential System in Turkey (with Ali Çarkoğlu)]. In Cem Akaş (ed.), Kritik Kavşak: Parlamenter Sistem - Başkanlık Sistemi [A Critical Juncture: Parliamentary System - Presidential System]. Istanbul: Koç Üniversitesi Yayınları, pp. 165-172. Link
- 2013. Türkiye: Dengeli ve Sürdürülebilir Yüksek Büyüme Peşinde [Turkey: In Pursuit of Sustainable High Growth]. In Ziya Öniş, Fikret Şenses, and Caner Bakır (eds.), Ülke Deneyimleri Işığında: Kişisel Kriz ve Yeni Ekonomik Düzen [In Light of Country Case Studies: The Global Crisis and the New Economic Order]. Istanbul: İletişim Yayınları, pp. 375-398. Link PDF
- Türkiye'de Bireysel Bağışçılık ve Hayırseverlik [Individual Giving and Philanthropy in Turkey]. TÜSEV Yayınları, Eylül [September] 2016. Link (Turkish) Report (Turkish) Infographics (Turkish) Link (English) Report (English) Infographics (English)
- Haziran 2015 Seçimlerine Giderken Kamuoyu Dinamikleri [Public Opinion Dynamics ahead of the June 2015 Elections in Turkey]. Memo (Turkish) Presentation (Turkish) Presentation (English)
- Germany's strong economy didn't help Angela Merkel at the polls. This is why. Monkey Cage, The Washington Post November 2, 2017. Link
- People who protest almost certainly vote (with Susan Stokes and Eli Rau). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post February 6, 2017. Link
- Trump supporters vastly overestimate unemployment - and they blame politicians for it (with Susan Stokes and Eli Rau). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post November 2, 2016. Link
- Donald Trump's message of fear may mobilize Americans to vote (but not necessarily for him) (with Susan Stokes). Monkey Cage, The Washington Post July 25, 2016. Link